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The 7th Pay Commission is set to conclude on December 31, 2025, fuelling growing anticipation around the 8th Pay Commission among central government employees and pensioners. Although the overall framework of the upcoming pay revision is gradually becoming clearer, uncertainty remains regarding precise timelines and the commencement of actual salary payouts. A significant step forward was taken in October 2025, when the Union Cabinet approved the Terms of Reference for the 8th Pay Commission, granting the panel roughly 18 months from November 2025 to submit its recommendations on pay, allowances, and pensions. Based on past precedent, January 1, 2026, is expected to be designated as the notional effective date of the revised pay structure. However, experts advise employees not to expect an immediate increase in take-home pay. Pratik Vaidya, Managing Director and Chief Vision Officer at Karma Management Global Consulting Solutions, notes that there is typically a delay between the official effective date and actual disbursement. Drawing parallels with the 7th Pay Commission—where the revision took effect from January 2016 but received Cabinet approval only in June, followed by phased payment of arrears—he explains that a similar lag is likely this time as well. Realistically, employees may see the revised salaries credited during FY 2026–27, along with arrears calculated from the officially notified effective date.

EXPECTED SALARY HIKE FOR EMPLOYEES

There is no official confirmation yet on the exact salary increase under the 8th Pay Commission, but preliminary expectations are being shaped by trends from earlier pay panels and prevailing economic conditions.

Under the 6th Pay Commission, employees saw an average pay rise of nearly 40%. This was followed by a comparatively lower increase of around 23–25% under the 7th Pay Commission, driven by a fitment factor of 2.57.

Looking ahead, early estimates for the 8th Pay Commission indicate a potential salary hike ranging between 20% and 35%. The proposed fitment factor is expected to lie between 2.4 and 3.0. If this materialises, it could result in a more pronounced boost in basic pay, especially for employees in lower pay bands and entry-level positions.